Solar Flare Probabilistic Forecast
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Empirical forecast based on historical flare statistics (1975-2026/05):
7 855 M class flares
556 X class flares

ALL TIMES MUST BE UTC

Enter one flare per line...


For best results, enter only flares from today and yesterday (UTC) as events older than 24 hours will be automatically excluded from the calculation.
Source page : https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

NOTE: this version saves and loads the previous data entered by any user simplifying the work !


Two forecast modes are available:

C Activity Mode:
Enter only C-class flare peaks.
Forecasts M1+ and M3+ flare probabilities.

M/X Activity Mode:
Enter only M-class and X-class flare peaks.
Forecasts M3+, M5+ and X flare probabilities.


Do not mix C and M/X flares in the same forecast.


To add a new flare, place the mouse precisely on a peak to read "GOES-18 Long" date-time and value,
and add this in the C or M/X data zone below ...
.

YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM Flux

M+ forecast Example: 2026-06-23 19:10 2.53e-6 2026-06-23 22:30 3.7e-6 2026-06-23 23.20 8.75e-6
2026-06-24 01:00 3.56e-6 2026-06-24 04:00 2.16e-6 M & X forecast Example: 2026-06-21 19:29 6.8e-5 2026-06-21 02:46 2.6e-5 2026-06-20 15:00 1.0e-5

Forecast mode (Must select):

C Activity (M1+, M3+ forecast)

M/X Activity (M3+, M5+, X forecast)

 

 

COMMUNITY C-FLARE LIST

Used for M1+ / M3+ forecasts.



COMMUNITY M/X-FLARE LIST

Used for M3+ / M5+ / X forecasts.